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Pope Betting Market Already Has a Favorite for Francis’ Successor

Wagers spiked on Polymarket on Monday morning after Pope Francis died at 88. Here’s who’s in the running.

Pietro Parolin

Global Images Ukraine/Global Images Ukraine via Getty

By Josh Fiallo

The centuries-old tradition of wagering on who will be pope is back in swing.

Polymarket—the prediction market that famously projected a comfortable victory for President Donald Trump in 2024—already has a frontrunner to replace Pope Francis.

According to the betting platform, 70-year-old Italian Pietro Parolin, who has been the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, has a 37 percent chance of being Francis’ successor. In his current role, he has been described as “deputy pope” and is considered a moderate choice.

Vice President JD Vance met with Pietro Parolin at the Vatican on Saturday. Parolin is now considered a favorite to be Pope Francis’ successor.

Vice President JD Vance met with Pietro Parolin at the Vatican on Saturday. Parolin is now considered a favorite to be Pope Francis’ successor.

Francesco Sforza/via REUTERS

Filipino Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, comes in at a close second with 32 percent. Called the “Asian Francis” because of his commitments to social justice, he would be the first pope from Asia.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle would become the first Asian pontiff if he succeeds Pope Francis. He has voiced commitments to social justice, as Francis did.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle would become the first Asian pontiff if he succeeds Pope Francis. He has voiced commitments to social justice, as Francis did.

Anadolu/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Péter Erdő, a 72-year-old Hungarian, is in third place with 7 percent. Known as more conservative than Francis or the first two Polymarket contenders, he was in the running for pope during the last conclave in 2013 and has since built bridges with progressive Catholics, making him a potential “compromise candidate.”

There was a spike in wagers on who will be the next pontiff after Pope Francis died Monday morning.

There was a spike in wagers on who will be the next pontiff after Pope Francis died Monday morning.

Polymarket

Just behind Erdő on Monday morning was 76-year-old Peter Turkson, of Ghana, who came in at 6 percent. He would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.

Cardinal Peter Turkson attends the Mass on the Sunday of the Word of God presided by Pope Francis at St. Peter's Basilica on Jan. 26. He is considered one of the favorites to be Francis’ successor.

Cardinal Peter Turkson attends the Mass on the Sunday of the Word of God presided by Pope Francis at St. Peter's Basilica on Jan. 26. He is considered one of the favorites to be Francis’ successor.

Franco Origlia/Getty Images

A secret papal conclave will select the next pontiff. A date has not been set for the meeting, but the process typically begins 15 to 20 days after the pope’s death or retirement.

White smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican indicates a new pope has been elected and that a conclave is complete. Worldwide celebrations by Catholics follow.

White smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican indicates a new pope has been elected and that a conclave is complete. Worldwide celebrations by millions of Catholics follow.

Dylan Martinez/REUTERS

Pope wagers spiked on Polymarket on Monday morning after Francis died at 88. It has accepted $3 million in wagers in total, with money being put behind a pack of 13 possible pontiffs. The site is accepting wagers on other pope-related markets, like his race and when he will be chosen.

History suggests predicting the next pope is no easy feat, however. As the saying goes, “He who enters the conclave as pope leaves it as a cardinal.”

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Josh Fiallo
Josh FialloBreaking News Reporter

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