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Republicans Suffer Humiliating Numbers in Red State Election

A Trump-endorsed candidate won a Tennessee congressional race by much, much less than his GOP predecessor did just last year.

Republicans held onto a congressional seat in Tennessee on Tuesday, but by a much narrower margin than last year’s race.

Matt Van Epps, a Trump-endorsed Army veteran and former state commissioner, defeated Democratic State Representative Aftyn Behn in the state’s 7th Congressional District, according to the Associated Press.

With more than 95 percent of the vote in as of publication, Van Epps was up by about 9 percentage points. But in 2024, then-Rep. Mark Green—who resigned earlier this year—handily carried the district by about 21 points. The district also backed Donald Trump by approximately the same margin last November.

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Democratic strategists told the Daily Beast that they were looking to cut Trump’s margin of victory last year in half. They’ve done that, and then some.

The outcome for Democrats in the deep-red region further bolsters their outlook for next year’s midterms, which Donald Trump, 79, was already pessimistic about. Seats formerly considered safe for the GOP may be up for grabs, forcing Republicans to spend where they don’t want to.

The race also aligns with other positive showings for Democrats in special elections since Trump took office.

Two House seats in Florida that were contested in April saw the Democratic candidate perform 23 points and 16 points better than Trump did in their district, the AP and The New York Times have noted. September races in Virginia and Arizona also resulted in 16-point and 17-point improvements over Trump’s margin, respectively.

Tennessee’s 7th District, which includes part of Nashville, received heightened national attention from both sides of the aisle, partially due to the closely divided House and an Emerson College poll from late November showing Van Epps, 42, ahead by a mere 2 points—well within the margin of error—with 5 percent of voters undecided.

“I have never seen the political tides shift as far and as fast as we’re seeing them move in this election,” former Vice President Al Gore, who previously represented Tennessee in the House and Senate, told Behn’s supporters Monday night during a virtual call, which New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined.

“Even beyond tomorrow, the fact that this race is even this close is changing Tennessee,” Ocasio-Cortez added.

Those comments came as MAGA Inc., a Trump-aligned super PAC, decided that the contest would be the first of 2025 for which it would spend money—about $1.7 million, according to the Times. Trump blasted out Truth Social posts urging supporters to vote for Van Epps and held a virtual rally for him, while House Speaker Mike Johnson flew to Tennessee for an event with Van Epps on Monday.

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In interviews and on social media, Behn, 36, called attention to those efforts.

“I think it’s hilarious that Republicans and their billionaire friends are trying to spend millions to save a seat that they should win without thinking,” she told CNN last month. “But if we flip this seat, it will send a national message that the Republican Party needs to get serious about lowering healthcare costs.”

In a statement following Tuesday’s election results, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Madison Andrus said: “Tonight’s election results prove exactly what the DCCC has known all along—Democrats are on offense not just in the standard swing districts but in red terrain across the country. Our expansive battlefield shows that Democrats are ready to fight in rural districts, in Latino communities, in Trump country and everywhere in between. House Republicans are officially on notice—Democrats are taking back the majority in 2026.”

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Van Epps’ narrow win ensures that the GOP’s House majority will grow to 220-213. But that won’t last long, since retiring Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s last day in office will be Jan. 5. Additionally, Democrats are expected to fill two vacant seats early next year after a January run-off election in Texas and an April special election in New Jersey.

Tuesday’s outcome also means that the GOP’s redistricting from a few years ago didn’t come back to bite them—but was perhaps too close for comfort. In 2022, Tennessee legislators carved up and redistricted into Republican-friendly areas three sections of Nashville in order to dilute the city’s heavily Democratic voting bloc. That move caused Democrat Jim Cooper to retire.

Van Epps’ single-digit win could give Republicans second thoughts about potentially spreading themselves too thin in future redistricting moves, which Trump has pushed.

The Daily Beast has reached out to both Van Epps and Behn for comment.

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