Polymarket Defends Profiting Off War as Suspicious Accounts Win Big
The prediction market company claims it spoke to “those directly affected” by the attacks in Iran.
Prediction market company Polymarket has defended its decision to allow its users to bet on war in Iran, calling the insights “invaluable” to those in the Middle East.
Several Polymarket accounts made bets right before the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran early Saturday morning.
Photo Illustration by Eric Faison/The Daily Beast/Getty Images
The Financial Times reported that a user named Dicedicedice cashed in nearly $150,000 on their wager that the U.S. would attack Iran by the end of February 28. Meanwhile, another gambler named Magamyman made more than $360,000 betting on the event.
Shayne Coplan is the founder and chief executive of Polymarket.
Michael M. Santiago/Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
The bets raised suspicions online, with California Rep. Mike Levin scrutinizing the timing of Magamyman’s bets. He noted that Donald Trump Jr. is on the Polymarket advisory board and that the Trump administration has been backing the company amid growing backlash.
“Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action,” Levin posted on X. “We need answers, transparency, and oversight.”
The odds of regime change in Iran spiked after the United States struck the country early Saturday morning—but likely not as high as the White House would have liked.
Polymarket
Polymarket wrote a note on its website addressing war betting, which is displayed above markets about Iran. Users have been wagering on regime change, the ousting of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and on-the-ground intervention by U.S. troops in Iran.
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“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” the note read. “That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today.”
The company added that it spoke to “those directly affected by the attacks” who asked Polymarket “dozens of questions.”
The U.S. and Israel bomb Iran.
Anadolu/Anadolu via Getty Images
“We realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not,” the statement continued.
The Daily Beast reached out to Polymarket for comment and clarification on its policies.
Nicolas Maduro is seen in handcuffs after landing at a Manhattan helipad, escorted by heavily armed Federal agents as they make their way into an armored car en route to a Federal courthouse in Manhattan on January 5, 2026 in New York City.
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The U.S. has executed a number of surprising and destabilizing military operations this year, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Some Polymarket users have been eerily accurate with seemingly far-off predictions. For example, one gambler raked in nearly half a million dollars by predicting Maduro’s ouster, sparking speculation about insider trading.
Polymarket has faced criticism for allowing users to bet on past tragedies. Beyond the attacks on Iran, the company was lambasted for allowing people to bet on how devastating last year’s Palisades wildfires would be.
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