DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE

Sorry MAGA, ‘Melania’ Is Most Certainly Not a Hit

The staggering cost of producing the doc may not be able to justify its box office opening.

Since First Lady Melania Trump’s documentary arrived in theaters on Friday, the Trump administration has worked overtime to declare the film a success. But their spin on the film’s numbers dismisses a stark reality.

The film exceeded early market projections, which placed earnings between $1 and 2 million, by grossing roughly $7 million at the box office during its opening weekend. It now has the highest opening for a non-musical documentary in a decade.

But its numbers pale in comparison to the cost of producing and promoting the vanity project.

Melania was acquired by Amazon MGM for a staggering $40 million and was marketed for anotehr $35 million. The $75 million film is now the most expensive documentary ever made, making its earnings far less impressive than some would like.

BE BESTER

Trust Me, 'Melania' Is an Unbelievable Abomination of a Film

Kevin Fallon

By contrast, music-oriented docs like Taylor Swift’s latest draw considerably higher ticket sales; in 2025, Swift’s doc led the box office on its opening weekend, earning $46 million. Swift’s previous doc, 2023’s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, grossed over $123 million worldwide during its run.

“Political” documentaries, however, tend to take home far less. There are exceptions, such as former vice president Al Gore’s Oscar-winning doc An Inconvenient Truth, which brought in close to $50 million worldwide. The Hollywood Reporter reported that the domestic marketing spend for Gore’s film was around $15 million, back in 2006.

Progressive filmmaker Michael Moore took in more than $220 million worldwide for Fahrenheit 9/11, which became the highest-grossing documentary of all time when it was released in 2004. The reported budget was $6 million.

And then there’s Melania. To break even, writes Variety, Melania’s doc will need to earn around $40 million to $45 million at the domestic box office—not including the marketing spend. Theater owners also keep about half of ticket sales, further reducing earnings.

Yet, across social media and MAGA-leaning news platforms, Melania has already been touted as a commercial success and a critical triumph. The box office earnings for the first lady’s film have been called “strong,” by the Daily Mail, while Fox News said the documentary “shocked the Hollywood press with its surprise opening weekend.”

Sky News Australia headlined that CNN was “forced to admit” that the documentary is “a big success.”

And President Trump declared it an all-caps “BLOCKBUSTER” on Truth Social.

Publications like the New York Times, Rolling Stone, Bloomberg, the BBC, and Politico also described the doc as a box-office success, or at the very least, one that exceeded expectations, in its short run so far.

Melania debuted third in the U.S. this weekend, falling far behind the Rachel McAdams-starring thriller Send Help and the sci-fi horror Iron Lung, made by YouTuber Markiplier. The critically-acclaimed Send Help pulled in $20 million in its opening weekend, and the self-funded Iron Lung made $18 million at the North American box office.

Deadline broke down the numbers, explaining that Melania performed well in the states and within the demographics expected of it. For example, Melania outperformed in red states like Texas and Florida, while underperforming in New York and California. The main demographic flocking to see the movie was older white women: the audience was 72% female and 83% over 45, according to data obtained by Variety.

The first lady’s doc was released across 1,778 North American theaters. It also had a worldwide rollout, but saw low numbers in the U.K. and was entirely pulled from theaters in South Africa.

Amazon could eventually recoup the millions spent on the doc once it hits streaming on Prime Video, reports CNN. Amazon MGM Studios’ chief of domestic distribution, Kevin Wilson, has already praised the documentary’s performance.

“We’re very encouraged by the strong start and positive audience response, with early box office for Melania exceeding our expectations,” Wilson said in a statement. He said the film and its upcoming spinoff docu-series will have “a long-tail lifecycle,” one that will be “extending well beyond the theatrical window.”

Even if some insist that its box office run is successful, Melania’s reviews are not. The film has been widely panned by critics and currently has a 9 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

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Meera NavlakhaEntertainment Reporter

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