DON UNDERWATER

New Polling Gives Trump Brutal Midterm Reality Check

Democrats are leading in a pair of competitive races as they look to retake the House in November.

New polling shows Donald Trump is facing greater chances of having to face a House controlled by Democrats eager to take him on after the 2026 midterms.

Republican congressmen in New York and Pennsylvania are trailing behind their Democratic challengers in a pair of key races, according to polls out this week from the House Majority PAC.

The fresh data comes as voters have soured on the president, and Democrats barely need to flip a handful of seats to retake the majority and the speaker’s gavel from Mike Johnson.

In New York’s 17th congressional district, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is trailing behind Democratic candidate Cait Conley by six points in a district he won by six points less than two years ago.

The GOP congressman was polling at 45 percent to Conley’s 51 percent. Lawler’ favorability is also underwater at 39 percent while 55 percent of voters view him unfavorably.

His standing in the district is similar to Trump’s favorability, with just 38 percent viewing the president favorably while 60 percent hold an unfavorable view of the president.

In Pennsylvania’s battleground 7th congressional district in the eastern part of the state, Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie is trailing Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, the House Majority PAC polling found.

Brooks is polling at 47 percent ahead of Mackenzie’s 43 percent, less than two years after the GOP congressman flipped the district from blue to red in 2024 by barely a point.

A majority of voters in the district have an unfavorable view of Trump as well despite his visit to the region just last month where he appeared on stage with Mackenzie. Only 44 percent of voters have a favorable view while 51 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump.

Both the New York and Pennsylvania House polls were conducted before the president revealed that the ceasefire with Iran was “over” and oil prices began to surge again this week as the U.S. carried out new strikes.

Republicans had been desperately hoping to be able to put the overseas conflict which has driven up prices behind them as the face the final months of campaigning before the midterms.

The polls are the latest in a series conducted by the House Majority PAC that suggest Democrats have the momentum in the final stretch of the campaign season.

Their polling out of Wisconsin’s third congressional district show Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden in a head-to-head matchup, with 50 percent to the GOP congressman’s 46 percent.

It’s a district Republicans held in 2024 by less than three points, but both Van Orden and Trump are underwater there.

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Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Mike Carey’s Democratic challenger Don Leonard appears to be in striking distance in Ohio’s 15th congressional district, which Republicans carried by double digits in 2024.

Leonard is polling at 40 percent to Carey’s 45 percent in a district he won by 13 points less than two years ago, but 55 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Trump in the district.

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While it’s not considered one of the most competitive in the midterms, Leonard’s ability to close the gap even in a red state indicates strength for Democrats in a series of closer battleground races.

Republicans hold a razor-thin majority with 218 seats in the House compared to Democrats 212 while four seats are currently vacant, including three which were previously held by Democrats.

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Sarah Ewall-WicePolitical Reporter

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