BLUE CRUSH

GOP Faces Growing Threat of Losing Senate Over Trump Turmoil

The Senate races are shifting to favor Democrats, not just in purple states but red ones.

Control of the Senate is trending in the Democrats’ favor as Americans become increasingly frustrated with President Donald Trump and his Republican Party.

The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races toward Democrats, signaling their growing likelihood of retaking the chamber despite heading into the midterms with a Senate map that once favored Republicans.

It comes as lawmakers are headed back to Washington this week after a more than two-week recess, despite the ongoing partial government shutdown and the president’s erratic behavior as he tries to pressure Iran into a deal to end the war he started.

Despite the president winning North Carolina and Georgia in the 2024 election, the Cook Political Report has now shifted both Senate races from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.”

While both states are deeply purple, even in red states, the non-partisan analysis is moving races toward Democrats. It shifted the race in Ohio from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss Up,” while the Senate race in Nebraska has gone from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”

In North Carolina, a state that had repeatedly delivered for Trump while electing Democratic governors, popular former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has been leading Trump-backed Republican Michael Whatley.

The shift follows GOP Senator Thom Tillis’ last year announcement he wasn’t running for reelection, as he sparred with Trump over his so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act, leaving the seat wide open.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Georgia are in a heated primary to run against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has been raking in massive sums of cash for the general election. The GOP primary to decide his competitor isn’t until May 19.

But in an even more unlikely twist, the Ohio Senate race is also looking ever more competitive as former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, ousted in 2024, looks to make a comeback against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance after Trump won.

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Ohio delivered for Trump three times, including in 2024 by more than 11 points, but Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno ousted Brown by less than four points. The latest polling has Husted and Brown neck-and-neck as Americans sour on the GOP.

Just last week, the Senate Leadership Fund, which is fighting to maintain the Republican Senate majority in November, announced it was putting $79 million into the Ohio Senate race, the most it was spending in any state, even more than other competitive states like Georgia and New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, Republican Senator Pete Ricketts’ reelection bid has become increasingly competitive as he faces off against Independent candidate Dan Osborn.

The mechanic-turned-Senate candidate first ran against Sen. Deb Fischer in a surprisingly closer-than-expected 2024 race. In the end, the incumbent Republican won by more than six points, but it was a strong year for the GOP, with Trump at the top of the ticket and Americans frustrated under Joe Biden’s presidency. But the tide has turned, with Republicans the target of voters’ wrath ahead of this fall’s midterms.

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Democrats need to flip four seats to retake the majority in the Senate. While the map appeared to favor Republicans keeping the Senate, the escalating anger at the president, his war, and persistent high prices continue to shift the political climate.

Democrats have outperformed in a series of races even in red states and districts since Trump took over. Just last week, a Democrat outperformed in the Georgia district previously held by GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The Democrat-backed judge also won the statewide race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court by sizable margins.

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A series of Democratic candidates have also managed to flip more than two dozen state legislative seats from red to blue across the country since Trump took office, further hinting at a building blue wave this fall.

But there is still a long way to go before the midterms in November, and both sides are gearing up for an expensive, competitive spring through the summer and into the fall.

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Sarah Ewall-WicePolitical Reporter

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