MONEY WHERE HIS MOUTH IS

Trump’s Rambling Speeches Are Now a Betting Category on Prediction Markets

Bettors are putting their money on where the president’s meandering speeches could go.

Online gamblers have set their sights on a new potential cash cow: President Donald Trump’s rambling speeches.

Bettors have flocked to Polymarket and Kalshi to make their predictions on what the 79-year-old president will say in his speeches, which typically feature his signature—and unpredictable—topics weave.

On Polymarket, gamblers have put their money on what Trump could say during his appearances at a Greek Independence Day celebration, a Cabinet meeting, and a National Agriculture Day event, all scheduled this week.

A Polymarket prediction market called “What will Trump say during Cabinet meeting on March 26?” generated over $250,000 in bets.

The description reads: “Trader sentiment hinges on anticipated remarks about administration priorities like border security, executive orders reversing Biden-era policies, and foreign policy toward Ukraine and China, shaped by recent committee votes advancing several picks despite holds from senators like Susan Collins.”

Bettors predicted that Trump would mention “Biden” or “Obama” more than 10 times, “nuclear” more than three times, “Hell” more than six times, and “million,” “billion,” or “trillion” more than 30 times. According to Polymarket, they were correct on “Hell,” “million/billion/trillion,” and “nuclear.”

“Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count,” the rules stated.

On Kalshi, one prediction market took bets on “What will Trump say during his remarks at the FII PRIORITY Summit?” in Florida on Friday.

As of Thursday afternoon, “transgender,” “Hormuz,” and “Ukraine” were leading the race, with nearly $30,000 in bets.

Opinion

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“Video of the Remarks at FII PRIORITY Summit will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Remarks at FII PRIORITY Summit will be used,” it explained.

During his Cabinet meeting on Thursday, Trump’s remarks took a turn not even prediction markets could have anticipated.

The president went on a bizarre aside about his favorite $5 Sharpie as he sat down with his top officials in the White House.

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Trump launched into a meandering anecdote about how he saved the government money by using Sharpies—painted black, to hide the logo—instead of the $1,000 pens that he was initially given.

“So this pen is very inexpensive, better,” he said of his customized Sharpie. “I love the government like I love myself economically. I want to save money.”

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Julia OrnedoReporter

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