FLIPPING OUT

Trump’s Own Pollster Warns GOP Is Sleepwalking Into Midterm Disaster

Fabrizio Ward shows Republicans are trailing on a generic ballot of 28 battleground House seats.

The GOP is on course to lose control of the House in the 2026 midterms, as its loyal base looks increasingly unmotivated to show up, according to a MAGA poll.

A survey of 1,000 registered voters in the 28 most competitive House districts, conducted by Fabrizio Ward—a Republican polling firm favored by President Donald Trump—shows that more people would rather vote for a Democrat (44 percent) than a Republican (41 percent) in a generic ballot.

The poll, obtained by Politico’s Playbook, also revealed that among the 65 percent of voters who describe themselves as “10-out-of-10” motivated to vote—a key sign of who’s likely to show up next year’s midterms—reveals that the Democratic lead grows to a 7-point margin (49 percent to 42 percent).

Of the 28 districts polled, 15 were narrowly won by the Republican candidate by a margin of 5 percent or less in 2024, while the remaining 13 were won by Democrats but also went for Trump in the presidential race.

The GOP is clinging to a razor-thin majority in the House and can ill afford to have any of the districts they currently control be flipped by Democratic candidates if they have any chance retaining control of the lower chamber.

Historically, the party in the White House suffers midterm losses, with opposition to Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” spending bill and MAGA’s backlash to the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files both being potential pressure points for Democrats to exploit.

In their analysis, pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward suggested there is a healthcare angle which could offer the GOP a possible GOP lifeline. The veteran pollsters said extending the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits—which expires at the end of 2025—could help Republicans hold onto vulnerable seats.

If GOP candidates in competitive districts let those tax credits expire, they’d trail Democratic rivals in a generic ballot by a brutal 15 points.

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“Unlike recent changes to Medicaid, which don’t kick in until after the midterms, voters on the individual insurance marketplace—who backed Trump by 4 points—will start getting notices of significant premium hikes this fall,” Fabrizio and Ward wrote.

“The Republican candidate that supports the tax credits would lead the Democrat on the generic ballot by 6 points overall, and among the most motivated voters by 4 points—completely flipping the political dynamic in the GOP’s favor.”

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