STAGFLATION NATION

Trump Flip-Flops Again on His Tariff War

The markets plunged as the risk of recession reached 40 percent on the back of a fresh threat.

After months of back-and-forth about whether he would hit products from Mexico and Canada with sweeping tariffs, President Donald Trump is vowing to go even bigger and impose duties affecting products from “all countries.”

The White House has teased Wednesday as “Liberation Day,” when Trump’s yo-yoing strategy on tariffs—an import tax paid by American companies, with the costs typically passed on to the consumer—would finally come into focus.

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Asked aboard Air Force One on Sunday what the policy would entail, he said, “You’d start with all countries. Essentially all of the countries that we’re talking about,” as reported by Axios.

He then repeated his common talking point that foreign companies doing business in the U.S. have “ripped us off” by providing products at competitive prices.

“You could take a look at trade with Asia and I wouldn’t say anybody has treated us fairly or nicely,” he said.

On Feb. 1, Trump hit Chinese exports with a 10 percent tariff and vowed to impose 25 percent duties on products from Mexico and Canada. The North American tariffs were originally supposed to take effect Feb. 2. Then March 4. And now April 2.

In the meantime, Trump has announced tariffs on all imported automobile parts, so-called “secondary tariffs” on products from countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela, retaliatory tariffs on Canadian and European imports if they oppose the initial round of tariffs, and new taxes on imported copper.

Business leaders had previously hoped the threat of tariffs was just a negotiating tool, but Trump has refused to back down even as markets plunge, consumer confidence drops, and investors express alarm.

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The stock markets in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan fell by between 1.7 and 4 percent after his comments Sunday, according to Axios. Forecasters at JPMorgan now say there’s a 40 percent chance Trump’s signature economic policy will lead to a recession, as they’re expected to push inflation above 4 percent next quarter, Reuters reported.

That could create a situation known as “stagflation,” a combination of stagnant growth and elevated inflation, according to Axios.

After originally claiming the tariffs would generate massive revenues from foreign countries—even though they’re paid by American companies—now Trump is saying the economic pain is worth it because it will bring manufacturing back to the U.S.

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Asked about concerns the tariffs will raise the price of automobiles by up to $12,000, Trump told NBC News on Sunday, “I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars.”

Experts, however, say it would take years to ramp up American manufacturing, and that doing so could sacrifice the country’s advantages in the global export of business, travel, and intellectual property services.

Besides, without market certainty and investment incentives—which the Trump administration is not offering—companies are likely to just raise their prices and keep their foreign supply chains in place, according to NBC News.

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