TEXAS HOLD ’EM

Democrats Rejoice as MAGA Faces Civil War in Senate Runoff

The most expensive Senate primary ever is headed to a costly runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.

The Texas Republican Senate primary is headed to a runoff between longtime Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither candidate surpassed the necessary 50 percent of the vote to win outright in what has already been the most expensive Senate primary in history.

The Republican Senate primary has been nasty from the start after Paxton announced he was challenging Cornyn for the seat he has held since 2002, despite bringing major baggage to the race.

Democrats were celebrating the close race, hoping the bitter rivalry between the two MAGA candidates will weaken the Republican campaign to hold the Senate seat.

Republican candidates and outside groups have already spent a whopping $100 million in the race, according to tracking by Ad Impact.

The price tag is expected to keep climbing as Cornyn and Paxton spend big ahead of the runoff on May 26.

Republicans in the ruby-red state had been looking to avoid dragging out the primary, so they could focus on the general election as Democrats have set their sights on the Lone Star state, where for some time they’ve been gunning to flip the seat.

Cornyn, 74, was by far the biggest spender in the primary to date, fueling roughly $71 million into the race as he sought a fifth term in office, in a political climate where anti-establishment sentiment has run strong.

Despite the massive spending disadvantage, Paxton, 63, continued to hold a slight lead over the incumbent senator in a series of polls leading up to the primary election. The Texas attorney general dropped just $4.4 million on advertising with even the Republican Senate campaign arm coming out strong against him.

Rep. Wesley Hunt, who was also challenging Cornyn for the seat, spent just over $12 million as he trailed in third place. Had he not run in the primary, it would have been less likely that Republicans would be facing a runoff.

Cornyn and his backers went scorched-earth in advertising, which accused Paxton of cheating on his wife after she filed for divorce last year, citing “biblical grounds” and adultery last year as well as personal enrichment.

Paxton was impeached in the Texas House but acquitted by the state Senate on bribery and other charges in 2023. In early 2024, he reached a deal to avoid felony fraud charges.

Paxton dropped an ad narrated by his daughter amid the infidelity attacks. He’s accused Cornyn of being a has-been clinging to power and predicted that attacking his family would backfire.

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Paxton came under fire for an AI-generated add that showed Cornyn slow-dancing outside the U.S. Capitol with Democratic Senate candidate Jasmine Crockett.

The state attorney general has also accused Cornyn of selling out to the “radical left” and not being a strong enough backer of the president, despite the Texas senator voting along party lines in favor of Trump-backed bills and nominees since the president returned to office.

Groups supporting Cornyn and Paxton also took aim at Wesley for missing House votes in the final stretch, trying to cut into support and avoid a three-way race that could result in a runoff.

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GOP campaign officials in Washington warned that Paxton is the less reliable candidate to hold onto the seat in the general election in November.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) released polling that showed Cornyn doing better against both Democratic Senate candidates, state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, in a general election matchup, but other hypothetical match-ups leading up to the primaries showed mixed results.

General election concerns did not stop a series of prominent groups and Texas Republicans from backing the state attorney general, including right-wing members of the House who have grown increasingly frustrated with the Senate.

However, President Donald Trump, the most important endorsement in the primary, remained out of the fray throughout the primary despite being sought after by all three candidates and visiting Texas on Friday.

Democrats saw a surge in early voting with 1.5 million people voting in the Democratic primary, according to data from VoteHub, compared to the 1.3 million voters cast ballots early in the GOP primary. While Republicans are more likely to show up on election day, Democrats’ early voting turnout surpassed the 2018 primary.

Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat since 1988, but the last time there was a close call was in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by just 2.5 percent back when Trump was in his first term in office.

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Sarah Ewall-WicePolitical Reporter

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