BAD DAYS AHEAD

CNN Data Guru Warns GOP Its ‘House Is on Fire’

This week’s elections are a “massive warning sign” for the GOP.

CNN data guru Harry Enten says Republicans have reason to panic after Democrats swept every major election this week.

Enten said that the GOP’s “house is on fire.” He compared their post-election reactions—to downplay the results, which Democrats not only won, but did so in a landslide—to the dog in the famous “this is fine” meme.

“When I see those results on Tuesday night, I see these giant—these huge shifts in the Democratic direction,” he said. “I say, Republican leaders, wake the heck up and have some of what I’m having, because this is a major warning sign.”

Republican lawmakers, like House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, have been quick to point out that the Democrats’ high-profile gubernatorial wins were in Virginia and New Jersey—states that Kamala Harris carried in 2024.

“If Alabama held an election also on Tuesday, and, gee whiz, a Republican was elected governor of Alabama, would anybody be writing a story about it?” Scalise told reporters this week. “Of course not. So let them celebrate New Jersey electing a Democrat governor; New York City electing a Democrat.”

Enten countered that Tuesday’s victories were not just about who won or lost, but about the margins with which the Democrats won.

Democrat Abigail Spanberger won Virginia by 15 percentage points—a margin of victory made even more impressive by the fact that the state’s current governor is a Republican. It is also a massive 12-point jump from Harris’ margin of victory in the commonwealth last fall.

Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the governorship in New Jersey by 13 points—a seven-point increase from Harris’ win there last year.

The Garden State governor’s mansion has been in Democratic control since Chris Christie termed out in 2018.

Those wide margins continued a positive trend for Democrats that began in special elections earlier this year.

Enten noted that each of the five special elections held since Nov. 5, 2024, has seen Democrats outperform Harris. That includes two districts in Florida, and one each in Texas, Arizona, and Virginia.

Special elections are a good barometer for how midterm elections will go, according to Enten. Since 2005, the party that outperforms in special elections—as the Democrats have this year—has gone on to win the U.S. House the following year each of the last five times. He estimated that Democrats may add as many as 20 new seats in 2026.

“What we are seeing are clear shift toward the Democratic candidates in all five of [the special elections],” he said. “We’re talking about shifts on average... of about or north of 15 percentage points from the 2024 presidential baseline, which is even larger than the shifts that we saw in both Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday.”

He continued, “Democrats are outperforming in all of them. Historically speaking, that means they go on to win the U.S. House of Representatives in the following midterm.”

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Josh FialloBreaking News Reporter

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