BIG, BUT NOT

Chuck Schumer’s Anti-Netanyahu Rant Is a Big Deal for U.S. Politics, But It Won’t Matter in Israel

Pro-Israel Democrats are making it clear they’ve had enough of Bibi in power, but Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition partners won’t care.

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On Thursday in the U.S. Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer let it all hang out.

Schumer excoriated Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, labeling him an obstacle to peace in the Middle East and calling for elections in Israel to choose a new leader.

“I believe in his heart, his highest priority is the security of Israel,” said Schumer, “However, I also believe Prime Minister Netanyahu has lost his way by allowing his political survival to take precedence over the best interests of Israel.”

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Schumer chastised Netanyahu for being “too willing to tolerate the civilian toll in Gaza, which is pushing support for Israel worldwide to historic lows.” He delivered an even more stern warning, “Israel cannot survive if it becomes a pariah.”

Everything that Schumer said about Netanyahu is correct. The Israeli prime minister is kowtowing to the far-right members of his governing coalition because it’s the only way he stays in power. In the process, he is poisoning relations with Israel’s key ally, the United States.

Coming from the country’s most powerful Jewish elected official—and the senior senator from New York state, which is home to the largest community of Jews outside of Israel—Schumer’s words are truly unprecedented.

Unfortunately, they won’t make a dime’s bit of difference in Israel.

The reason is the perilous politics of Netanyahu’s governing coalition, which is the most far-right in Israel’s history, and Bibi’s ever-falling popularity.

If Netanyahu’s government fell tomorrow, new elections would be held soon after, and not only would Netanyahu almost certainly lose power… but so would most of his fellow coalition members.

Right now, polling shows that Netanyahu’s Likud party would likely lose more than ten seats in the country’s parliament, the Knesset. The biggest beneficiary of Likud’s decline would be the center-left National Unity party helmed by retired general Benny Gantz, who joined the current government after Oct. 7 as a minister without portfolio.

That means there is little incentive for any of Netanyahu’s coalition members to topple the government until the next scheduled elections, which would be in October 2026. Not only would most lose seats, but since they are so right-wing, it’s unlikely Gantz would want to include them in a winning coalition. Even the country’s religious parties, which lean right and are currently in government but have previously participated in center-left government, might not be asked to join a Gantz coalition.

For Bibi, there’s an extra incentive. If he is out of government that could mean a full restarting of his corruption trial. As long as he is prime minister, he can push for judicial reforms that would potentially shield him from prosecution and/or incarceration.

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The most far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition might still be inclined to topple the government for ideological reasons if, for example, he strikes a cease-fire deal with Hamas or signals public support for a Palestinian state. But doing so would likely result in Netanyahu being replaced by a more center-left government, so they have plenty of reason to hold their powder.

So, Schumer’s speech will likely not move the political needle in Israel. In fact, Netanyahu will likely use the public dressing down as a rallying point for his supporters—and argue that the U.S. is pressing him to end the war in Gaza with Hamas still in power. Never underestimate the man’s capability for cynicism.

For Israelis who want to be rid of Netanyahu—and these days, that’s a healthy majority—Schumer’s speech will only add to their fear that the current Israeli government is traversing the dangerous path toward a full break with the United States, the country’s key ally. It will be one more Netanyahu misjudgment to add to an ever-rising pile—and will increase the calls for new elections.

But in reality, it’s Israel’s political elite who will determine how long Netanyahu stays in power, and those in his camp will likely shrug it off.

So why did Schumer do this? It’s no small thing for a Jewish supporter of Israel, like Schumer, to call on Netanyahu to step down. But this is all about American domestic politics.

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Democrats want to separate themselves from the unpopular elements of the war in Gaza—and while they can’t and won’t abandon Israel, they would very much like to disassociate themselves from Netanyahu. Schumer gave that effort a hand today and, in the process, made it much easier for his fellow Senate Democrats to criticize Netanyahu publicly.

Since he still needs to deal directly with Netanyahu, President Joe Biden can’t give a speech like the one Schumer did (though I’ve lost count of the number of “leaks” from the White House expressing Biden’s frustration with his Israeli counterpart). The burden fell on Schumer, and it would not be surprising if he closely coordinated with the White House in drafting his remarks.

Schumer’s move was also not a break with Israel. This was all about Bibi, and if he ever leaves office and is replaced by a less toxic prime minister, the U.S.-Israel relationship will likely return to normal. Instead, the speech was all about sending a signal to the anti-Israel activists that the national leadership of the Democratic party is, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, on their side when it comes to Netanyahu.

But as far as Israeli politics, Schumer’s speech was likely a nothing burger.

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