LOSING TRUST

Americans Overwhelmingly Call BS on Trump as Chaos Fear Spikes

A new poll shows the public rejecting the president’s insistence that a deal is close.

Americans aren’t convinced the war with Iran is anywhere close to over, despite President Donald Trump’s claims that his administration is locked in talks to bring a close to hostilities.

In fact, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, they expect things to get worse before they get better, and those who think the Middle East will spiral into chaos outnumber those who think the war will bring more stability by a ratio of three to one.

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The six-day poll concluded Monday, the same day Trump again backed away from threatened “massive attacks” on Iran, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding a five-month conflict he initially predicted would deliver a swift victory.

On July 23, Trump told Axios he was “considering a massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before,” adding he was “close to making a decision.”

But by July 27, following reports that senior leadership had advised him to hold off, Trump told reporters he was pursuing negotiations instead. “They want to meet, and we’re meeting,” Trump said, traveling on Air Force One. “We’ll see what happens.” Iran denied that direct talks with the United States were taking place.

Talks or not, the American public isn’t buying the reassurances. Fifty percent of poll respondents said they expect U.S. military action in Iran to destabilize the Middle East over the next year, roughly three times the 17 percent who said the war would bring more stability. Another 16 percent said stability would stay about the same, while 17 percent said they were unsure.

Respondents were similarly pessimistic about gas prices, which have climbed as Iran chokes off traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil supplies.

Fifty-eight percent said they expect gas prices to get worse, compared with just 15 percent who expect improvement.

Even Republicans, who overwhelmingly back Trump personally, are split on how his war is playing out. While 80 percent of Republicans approve of Trump’s overall performance and 66 percent back his handling of Iran, 41 percent believe Middle East stability will actually improve over the next year because of the war.

The conflict, which Trump launched alongside Israel in late February, has cost U.S. taxpayers at least $37.5 billion, killed 18 U.S. service members and killed thousands of Iranians. Just 35 percent of Americans approve of the war overall.

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Asked which party has a better approach to handling war and terrorism, registered voters picked Democrats over Republicans, 37 percent to 36 percent, the first time Democrats have led on the question since Reuters/Ipsos began asking it in December 2024, when Republicans led 39 percent to 28 percent. The same polling has shown voters now see Democrats as better equipped to manage the economy for the first time in roughly a decade.

“This war was unpopular the day it started, and it’s gotten more unpopular since,” said Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, a Washington think tank.

Logan said Trump faces a difficult tradeoff, having set ambitious goals for the conflict—destroying Iran’s missile capabilities and preventing it from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon— while also trying to limit U.S. casualties and the political fallout that could come with them.

“That incoherence, or rudderlessness, in the conduct of the war is causing more problems for the president,” Logan said.

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