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Holbrooke's Dangerous Game in Pakistan
Charles Dharapak / AP Photo
Once a staunch opponent of jihad, Pakistan has turned into a toxic "jelly state" run by theocratic armies. Can Obama’s special envoy unite the country against the Taliban?
As President Obama sends conciliatory missives to Iran and provocative missiles into Pakistan—where US supply lines are being bombed by Taliban forces,and a US aid worker recently went missing—surely this irony is not lost on Washington: Precisely 30 years ago, when Obama was still in his teens, Iran became America’s most bitter foe in the Muslim world and Pakistan its most reliable ally.
On February 1, 1979, a cleric with deep-set eyes and deeper convictions, Ayatollah Khomeini, entered Tehran and turned the multi-dimensional upheavel that had just ousted the Shah into an Islamic revolution. Ten months later, students—among them, possibly, a young man called Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—took 44 Americans hostage and held them for 444 days.
Reagan-era Americans were great champions of jihad, and Reagan tended to measure patriotism by the length of the beard.
Also in 1979 Soviet troops marched into Kabul, launching the decisive phase of the Cold War in which Presidents Reagan and Bush would succeed in undermining the Soviet empire, in partnership with President Zia ul Haq of Pakistan.
Pakistan’s reward has been a regular infusion of funds for its military, consistent support for an erratic polity, and, most important, careful indifference while it developed nuclear weapons. Iran, in the same period, has been ravaged by an eight-year-war started by Saddam Hussein, relentless economic sanctions, near-pariah status in the West, and constant harassment in its bid to become the second nuclear weapons state in the Muslim world.
But now the battle lines have shifted dramatically. The “good jihad” that defeated the Soviets has become the “bad jihad,” with Osama bin Laden in a seemingly impregnable sanctuary within smelling distance of Pakistan’s famed intelligence service. Pakistan has turned into a toxic “jelly state,”which can neither turn stable nor disappear.
Although the Pakistan army is still in the trenches alongside the Pentagon, a growing swath of western Pakistan is now under the effective control of the Taliban, and the fabled province of Swat in the northern mountains has been virtually ceded to the Pakistani Taliban and its regressive social code. Tuesday’s bombing of a key supply route for US forces in Afghanistan was further proof that Islamabad has lost control of the region.
As special envoy Richard Holbrooke steps into territory that will make Bosnia seem like a kindergarten class, he must address a question that is asked each day on the streets of Karachi, Quetta, Peshawar and Lahore: Why is Pakistan fighting America’s war against fellow-Muslims?







citivas
I can't believe no one had commented yet... Very interesting read.
It's too bad the previous Administration wasted 8 years, massive money, many American lives and a majority of America's international goodwill distracting us in Iraq when the more important work was always here. Of course Bush could only ever handle black & white so perhaps some of the very complexities you raise convinced them it was easier to just make up a threat of nukes from Saddam and blaze in like cowboys to make the word safe for democracy.
I've also always been fascinated that the same nations and Muslin leaders and organizations that regularly disown the legitimacy of Israel's right to exist never challenge that of Pakistan's despite both being "created" by the U.N. at similar times. To be clear, I don't question either's rights, only the hypocrisy of some people's selective interpretation on this.
citivas
Sorry, I mistyped -- didn't mean to suggest common u.n. creation -- only the common "creation" at a similar time and eventual recognition in both cases by the u.n.
troutcor
The development that will make nearly all peace initiatives more difficult, and that is not being commented on much, is the effect of the unfolding economic depression. Many of these struggles between modernity and tradition revolve around the central problem of modernity; global capitalism is incapable of nurturing middle classes large enough to sustain democracy and moderation in most of the world. (Of course it will come into question if capital can do the same now in the U.S.) Countries like Pakistan are economic basket cases. This does not bode well for holding the center together.
barryotoole
Excellent article, managing to explain a knotty, extensive issue in a few words.
I am very concerned that, in the very near future - it seems, Pakistan will be once under military rule, with apparent nod from Washington.
That may not seem so bad, but in the next couple of years, the officers that entered the Army during General Zia's rule will be Lt. Generals and the supposedly apolitical General Kayani, the current Chief of Staff, will retire before the end of 2010. These officers are avowedly fundamentalists, who see the theocrats, including the Taliban, as patriotic.
The ensuing mayhem will certainly spill over to neighboring countries, and then the world. China is very nervous about these developments, and is already taking steps to contain the turmoil that is likely to spread in its western provinces once Taliban takes over Pakistan. It has started to form alliances will theocratic forces whose focus is more limited (read India only) than the Taliban and will insulate it from resurrection of discord in places like the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.
I have no doubt that during the tenure of the Obama Administration, the world focus and the center of gravity of instability will shift from the Middle East to West Asia. This will border the former Central Asian states under Russian influence. Russia is starting to prepare for that eventuality when the provinces like Chechnya will resume their struggle. The 'Great Game' will become greater.
All this is happening as we speak, yet the West - including America, seem not to pay the attention it deserves. The 'International Migraine' (Albright's description of Pakistan) will soon become an 'International Brain Tumor', ready to explode.
Thank you.
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